This blog post examines whether human technological progress can truly overcome the entropy crisis and avoid resource depletion and extinction.
Entropy is both the title of this book and the precise way it represents the author’s worldview. What is entropy? While most people have encountered the term at least once in physics class or through reading, it is not a particularly familiar concept. Entropy can be described as ‘disorder’ – a measure of how effectively energy can be utilized. The author explains entropy through the Second Law of Thermodynamics. According to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, entropy always increases. While entropy might decrease within a specific, isolated system, the fact that it always increases when considering the whole remains unchanged. When we burn oil for heating in winter to generate heat, the chemical energy contained in the oil transforms into thermal energy, warming the room. The First Law of Thermodynamics, the law of energy conservation, states that the total amount of energy remains constant. That is, the amount of chemical energy consumed equals the amount of thermal energy produced. However, the entropy of the newly generated thermal energy changes to a much higher level than that of the chemical energy.
The author applies the Second Law of Thermodynamics to major societal themes to analyze current problems. As we entered industrial society, humanity became unprecedentedly surrounded by machines. Consequently, the energy required for one person to live now is hundreds of times greater than that needed by a medieval serf 500 years ago. While individual lives may have become more comfortable, the enormous increase in society’s overall energy consumption has naturally led to an exponential rise in the amount of entropy society emits. This increased entropy manifests in various forms: oil used as fuel is depleting, exhaust gases from burning fuel pollute the atmosphere, and the increased consumption generates enormous amounts of waste. The greater problem is that energy consumption will continue to rise, and the rate of waste generation will accelerate. The author warns that if this industrial society continues unchecked, usable energy sources will soon be exhausted, and the Earth will become a garbage heap hurtling toward its end.
I wish to question the author’s pessimistic prediction of the future. According to the author’s argument, humanity will face extinction in the not-too-distant future. This is said to occur when all the Earth’s energy has shifted to a state of high entropy beyond our utilization. However, this prediction assumes that the technological level and energy usage patterns of that time remain unchanged. Human technology is advancing exponentially, and everyone recognizes the need to move beyond fossil fuels and adopt renewable energy as the primary source. The challenge of creating clean energy is being tackled globally through concerted efforts. We believe we will find a breakthrough.
In a way, the notion that society has high entropy might be a relative concept. If we view the agricultural society of 500 years ago with our current technological capabilities, it would appear to have very low entropy. Conversely, if we were to observe today’s industrial society with the technological capabilities of that time, it would seem saturated with entropy. In other words, viewing the past, when natural resources like coal, oil, and gas were abundant, through the lens of our current technology that freely utilizes these resources would make entropy feel low. Conversely, viewing the polluted natural environment of today through the lens of past technology, limited to agricultural and fishing capabilities, would make entropy feel high. Therefore, even the same environment can feel different levels of entropy depending on the level of technology available. The tragic scenario the author anticipates could occur if the rate of entropy increase far outpaces the pace of technological development in energy utilization, leading to a shortage of available energy sources in the near future. However, the pace of human technological advancement has also accelerated, enabling us to master methods of obtaining energy beyond fossil fuels, such as nuclear fission power generation and renewable energy. Hydrogen, the raw material for nuclear fission power, exists almost infinitely in the oceans, and solar energy, the source of renewable energy, flows infinitely onto Earth. The reason we still rely on fossil fuels despite possessing the technology to utilize these alternatives is simply that generating energy from fossil fuels is currently cheaper and easier. If the fossil fuel-based society the author envisions reaches an entropy watershed, we can simply transition to a society based on other energy sources. That watershed has not yet been reached, but we already possess the technology to make that transition.
Other scholars discuss similar issues in this context. For example, environmental economist Nicholas Stern emphasizes that responding to climate change is essential, arguing that we must fundamentally rethink how we use energy alongside technological progress. His report mentions the economic losses that will occur due to climate change, warning that if the current economic system is not changed, humanity will face not only significant financial losses but also an environmental crisis.
The author states that a paradigm shift is inevitable to avoid a tragic outcome. Reducing energy consumption and slowing the flow of energy to decrease the rate of entropy increase is the path for humanity to survive longer. However, it seems problems could be avoided without necessarily changing the paradigm. If we can find various methods to obtain energy and utilize abundant energy sources, there would be no issue even without deliberately reducing energy use. It appears feasible to further develop technologies that faithfully utilize energy sources within the paradigm of modern industrial society, thereby creating more usable energy in the future than is currently consumed. This seems reasonable given the accelerating pace of technological advancement.
Over 30 years have passed since the author wrote this book. Contrary to his predictions, we still have ample supplies of oil and coal, and technologies for utilizing new energy sources are developing smoothly. Compared to 30 years ago, we are not living in a bleak future but in an era of even greater energy abundance. If we halt technological development, the future the author envisioned might indeed arrive. However, we will not stop; we will continue to move forward. If the individual efforts of those striving to advance are combined on a national and global scale, we can expect a free and bright future unconstrained by the laws of entropy.
Of course, the concept of entropy still carries an important warning due to the uncertainty of the future. Climate change, resource depletion, and the dangers of failing to address these issues align with what Rifkin termed the ‘entropy apocalypse’. Therefore, efforts are needed not only in technological development but also in rethinking energy usage patterns and the economic system as a whole. We must not become complacent just because current technology can solve some problems.
