This blog post explores the concept of thermal death presented in ‘Entropy: A New World View’ and how technological advancement could transform humanity’s future.
The author begins the book by addressing the mechanistic worldview. He holds a skeptical view of the mechanistic worldview built over the past 300 years by Francis Bacon, René Descartes, and Isaac Newton. According to this mechanistic worldview, all components of the world are given in a measurable, orderly, perfect, and predictable state, describable through the language of mathematics. Furthermore, the logic of mechanistic thinking posits that science and mathematics enable the expansion of human domains. The natural world, as it exists, is deemed of little utility to humans. Consequently, the logic follows that nature is an object to be developed and pioneered by human hands, progressing it towards a more efficient and useful direction.
Rifkin criticizes this production-oriented worldview, arguing it does not always develop in a direction beneficial to humanity as a whole. The author also agrees with Rifkin’s perspective on the mechanistic worldview. Undoubtedly, Western rationalism developed under the influence of the mechanistic worldview, and the advancement of science and the conveniences of civilization were underpinned by a mechanistic conception of the universe. Had the mechanistic worldview been accepted uncritically, leading to the prevalence of such production-oriented values today, every river on Earth would be polluted, every tree in forests and mountains would be cut down, and the Earth would become an environment no longer habitable for humans.
While the existing mechanistic worldview and scientific theories focused solely on producing faster and more, and on the advancement of civilization, the laws of thermodynamics are the principles governing the ‘cost’ of development and production—how much energy and resources are consumed and lost in this process. According to the First Law of Thermodynamics, the total energy of the entire universe remains constant. When energy is converted into another form, it neither creates nor destroys energy. However, the fact that energy does not disappear does not mean humans can use it indiscriminately without causing other problems. While the total amount of energy remains constant, the Second Law of Thermodynamics states that every time we use energy, useful energy is converted into unusable forms. In other words, entropy increases. Underground resources like oil, coal, natural gas, and minerals consumed by humans in production activities are finite and will eventually be depleted during the energy conversion process.
I agree to some extent with his perspective on the mechanical worldview. Furthermore, the law of entropy is an immutable natural law that we cannot defy unless we are gods. Human industrial activity and consumption increase entropy. However, I hold a different view regarding the bleak future for humanity he envisions. While human activity increases the Earth’s entropy, on a cosmic scale, the entropy generated by human activity is negligible. Entropy increases every moment due to human activity, but it does not strangle humanity. Over twenty years have passed since Rifkin wrote this book. I wish to refute the dark future Rifkin predicted back then from today’s perspective and argue that our future is not as bleak and grim as imagined.
Rifkin argues that human development activities increase the entropy of the entire planet, making life increasingly difficult for humanity, citing the depletion of oil resources as an example. However, I hold a slightly different perspective on this point. For instance, among theories predicting past oil production, there is the ‘Peak Oil’ theory devised by American M. King Hubbert in 1956. According to this theory, the oil production curve over time forms a bell-shaped curve. After reaching its peak, oil production no longer increases but gradually declines until it eventually depletes. This theory predicted that oil production in the United States and Canada would peak in 1970 and then decline. Indeed, the theory proved remarkably accurate during that period (the 1970s and 1980s). Oil production in both countries did follow a declining trend after 1970, seemingly destined for complete depletion after 2010.
However, following the rise in oil prices since the 2000s, crude oil from shale layers and oil sands (sand deposits containing crude oil), previously deemed uneconomical and useless due to high extraction costs, became viable for mining thanks to technological advancements and increased economic competitiveness. Thanks to this, oil production has been steadily increasing since 1999. As of 2010, Canada’s oil production stands at 2.8 GB (gigabarrels), representing a 40% increase over the 2 GB produced in 1973, which was considered the peak of oil production. This is why, despite the oil risk theory raised countless times, the explosive increase in oil demand from emerging developing countries could be met. According to Michael J. Economides, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Houston, there is no peak oil, and oil production will continue steadily for the next 300 years. Thus, new oil fields and alternative energy sources are being discovered through technological advancement and economic logic. According to cutting-edge energy production theories, the prevailing prediction is that energy depletion will not occur for hundreds of years.
Thanks to new oil field development and technological progress, the ticking clock of the doomsday bomb leading humanity to its end seems to have been reset for hundreds of years. If, in an even more distant future, these oil resources themselves were to be completely depleted, would an energy crisis ensue? I believe it would not. Even after oil resources are exhausted, human progress will continue using nuclear fusion energy. Nuclear fusion power generation is a technology that produces energy using light elements like hydrogen as fuel. Theoretically, fusion power offers nearly limitless energy. If commercialized, it would mark a major turning point in solving humanity’s energy shortage problem. Hydrogen, the fuel material, is a resource obtainable from seawater at very low cost. Moreover, hydrogen is the most abundant substance in the universe, meaning we needn’t worry about depletion for at least the hundreds of millions of years humanity will continue to exist. Is it really necessary to worry about something so far in the future that it might not even be within our lifetimes, or even within the existence of humanity?
Fusion energy technology has been researched since the 1980s through the ITER project, supported by the International Atomic Energy Agency and involving the US, EU, Russia, China, Japan, and South Korea. Research into fusion energy technology is ongoing. Current technology levels have reached the point where more energy is produced than input into the fusion reactor, and commercialization is expected within the next 20 years. I believe humanity is currently in the preparatory stage for transitioning from a petroleum-based energy society to a fusion-based energy society. As long as oil production continues, society will naturally shift from its current petroleum-energy focus to a fusion-energy focus.
Next, Rifkin mentions that Earth is an isolated system, arguing that the material entropy on Earth will continuously increase until it reaches a maximum point—a point where all useful materials on Earth are depleted, turning it into a barren wasteland. (In Rifkin’s book, between pages 97 and 110, the terms “closed system” and “isolated system” are used interchangeably. Context suggests this may be a confusion on his part or a translation error.) This is because while matter does not move in a closed system, energy can. Over the past 4.5 billion years, Earth has received immense energy from the Sun.
This energy lowers Earth’s entropy. For example, radiant energy from the Sun evaporates seawater, which becomes rain driving turbines in hydroelectric power plants. Solar heat generates wind for wind power or is used in solar thermal power generation. The Moon’s tidal forces create tidal ranges, enabling electricity generation through tidal power. The electricity thus produced dissolves bauxite, which humans cannot utilize in its natural state, and electrolytically separates it to obtain aluminum. Furthermore, electrolysis of seawater yields useful substances like magnesium, sodium, and chlorine. Even without artificial entropy reduction, plants synthesize high-entropy substances into low-entropy carbohydrates through photosynthesis using sunlight. Since these processes will continue for billions of years as long as the sun remains active, this is not a problem humanity needs to worry about as long as we inhabit Earth. Rifkin does not overlook solar energy. In the latter part of his work, he presents an agrarian society dependent on solar energy as an ideal future. However, I believe a better future awaits us than one where all humanity farms and lives self-sufficiently, as it did 2000 years ago.
Of course, achieving this sustainable development requires prioritizing research and commercialization of alternative energy resources. Currently, alternative energy generation accounts for only 19% of global power production, including hydroelectric. To avoid the “heat death” Rifkin describes, we must consume oil for centuries to come while expanding the use of alternative energy until nuclear fusion power is fully commercialized.
